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A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs

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dc.contributor Great Barrier Reef Marine Pk Author
dc.contributor Bangor Univ
dc.contributor Sch Ocean Sci
dc.contributor Australian Institute Of Marine Science
dc.contributor Marine Appl Res Ctr
dc.contributor Symbioseas
dc.contributor Criobe
dc.contributor Ephe
dc.contributor Cnrs
dc.contributor Bangor University
dc.contributor Corail,lab Excellence,usr 3278
dc.contributor Australian Inst Marine Sci
dc.contributor.author BEEDEN, ROGER
dc.contributor.author PUOTINEN, MARJI
dc.contributor.author MAYNARD, JEFFREY A.
dc.contributor.author RADFORD, BEN
dc.contributor.author WILLIAMS, GARETH J.
dc.date.accessioned 2017-03-21T01:03:53Z
dc.date.accessioned 2016-05-25T23:42:00Z
dc.date.accessioned 2017-03-21T01:03:53Z
dc.date.accessioned 2020-07-20T00:48:46Z
dc.date.available 2017-03-21T01:03:53Z
dc.date.available 2016-05-25T23:42:00Z
dc.date.available 2017-03-21T01:03:53Z
dc.date.available 2020-07-20T00:48:46Z
dc.date.issued 2016-05-17
dc.identifier.citation Puotinen M, Maynard JA, Beeden R, Radford B, Williams GJ (2016) A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs. Scientific Reports 6: 26009 en_US
dc.identifier.issn 2045-2322
dc.identifier.uri http://epubs.aims.gov.au/11068/12480
dc.description.abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the 'damage zone') enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia's Great Barrier Reef from 1985-2015 using three models-including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985-2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur.
dc.description.sponsorship This study was made possible by financial support to M.P. and J.M. from the Ecosystems Conservation and Resilience section of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority via the Climate Change Action Plan. J.M. was partially supported by grant from LABEX CORAIL and EPHE/CNRS of Paris, France, and by the European Research Council via Marie Curie Actions. Thanks to Tony Ayling and Katharina Fabricius for providing access to unpublished field data for TCs Joy and Larry, respectively. Figures were developed in collaboration with D. Tracey.
dc.description.sponsorship This study was made possible by financial support to M.P. and J.M. from the Ecosystems Conservation and Resilience section of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority via the Climate Change Action Plan. J.M. was partially supported by grant from LABEX CORAIL and EPHE/CNRS of Paris, France, and by the European Research Council via Marie Curie Actions. Thanks to Tony Ayling and Katharina Fabricius for providing access to unpublished field data for TCs Joy and Larry, respectively. en_US
dc.description.uri http://www.nature.com/articles/srep26009 en_US
dc.language English
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Nature - OPEN en_US
dc.relation.ispartof Null
dc.rights Attribution 3.0 Australia *
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/ *
dc.subject Science & Technology - Other Topics
dc.subject Phase-shifts
dc.subject Great-barrier-reef
dc.subject Long-term
dc.subject Environmental-change
dc.subject Gradients
dc.subject Impact
dc.subject Hurricanes
dc.subject Resilience
dc.subject Climate
dc.subject Climate-change
dc.subject Disturbance
dc.subject Multidisciplinary Sciences
dc.subject Australia
dc.title A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs
dc.type journal article en_US
dc.identifier.doi 10.1038/srep26009
dc.identifier.wos WOS:000375906000001


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