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Accounting for Uncertainty in Value Judgements when Applying Multi-Attribute Value Theory

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dc.contributor Dept Ecol
dc.contributor Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile
dc.contributor Escuela Ingn
dc.contributor Australian Inst Marine Sci
dc.contributor Pontificia Universidad Catolica De Chile
dc.contributor Ctr Appl Ecol & Sustainabil Capes
dc.contributor University Of Melbourne
dc.contributor Australian Institute Of Marine Science
dc.contributor Univ Melbourne
dc.contributor Sch Bot
dc.contributor Lab Int Cambio Global
dc.contributor Ctr Conservac Marina GELCICH, STEFAN WALSHE, TERRY ESTEVEZ, RODRIGO A. ALAMOS, FELIPE H. 2018-02-04T18:29:28Z 2018-02-04T18:29:28Z 2019-05-09T01:20:31Z 2018-02-04T18:29:28Z 2018-02-04T18:29:28Z 2019-05-09T01:20:31Z 2018-02-01
dc.identifier.citation Estevez RA, Alamos FH, Walshe T, Gelcich S (2018) Accounting for uncertainty in value judgements when applying multi-attribute value theory. Environmental Modeling & Assessment 23: 87-97
dc.identifier.issn 1420-2026
dc.description.abstract In environmental decisions, analysts commonly face substantial uncertainties around stakeholders' values judgments. Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT), a family of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques, is applied in participative settings to articulate stakeholders' values in decision-making. In MAVT, value judgments represent the intensity of individuals' preferences in a set of objectives, which are operationalized as scaling factors or weights. Different sets of weights may express variation in people's preferences or value judgments. Unfortunately, there are still important methodological gaps regarding how to incorporate uncertainty and the substantial variation commonly encountered in stakeholders' preferences. This article presents a model of uncertainty that encompasses the dispersion of value judgments in MAVT. To achieve this goal, we draw on info-gap theory, which provides a mathematically grounded method for exploring sensitivity to preference weights when there are relatively high levels of uncertainties. We experimentally tested the uncertainty model in an environmental decision problem. We found that MAVT can use info-gap analysis to deal with multiple value judgments, avoiding exclusive reliance on nominal expected values to inform decisions. We explored a mechanism to explicitly consider the trade-offs between the performance of alternatives and the level of uncertainty that in any specified context a decision maker is willing to accept. Findings emphasize the potential of MAVT to support environmental management decisions, particularly in situations where multiple stakeholders and their contested value judgments have to be considered simultaneously to explore uncertainties around value trade-offs.
dc.description.sponsorship The authors thank Comision Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONICYT)-FONDECYT/Postdoctorado 3150380, BECAS-CHILE Doctoral Scholarship, Financiamiento CONICYT Basal FB0002, Nucleo-milenio initiative NC-120086 & RC130004 from the Ministerio de Economia and The Pew Marine Conservation Fellowship Program. The authors also thank Mark Burgman, Yakov Ben-Haim, and Maximiliano Olivares for their valuable comments on the manuscript.
dc.language English
dc.subject Multicriteria Decision-analysis
dc.subject Management
dc.subject Expected Values
dc.subject Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (mcda)
dc.subject Models
dc.subject Info-gap
dc.subject Trade-offs
dc.subject Environmental Sciences & Ecology
dc.subject Sensitivity
dc.subject Environmental Sciences
dc.subject Sensitivity Analysis
dc.subject Policy
dc.title Accounting for Uncertainty in Value Judgements when Applying Multi-Attribute Value Theory
dc.type journal article
dc.identifier.doi 10.1007/s10666-017-9555-5
dc.identifier.wos WOS:000419948400007

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