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Distribution models predict large contractions of habitat-forming seaweeds in response to ocean warming

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dc.contributor Sch Biol Sci
dc.contributor State Herbarium South Australia
dc.contributor Roskilde University
dc.contributor Dept Environm Water & Nat Resources
dc.contributor Flinders University South Australia
dc.contributor Sch Earth & Environm Sci
dc.contributor Universidad Rey Juan Carlos
dc.contributor University Of Hong Kong
dc.contributor Flinders Univ S Australia
dc.contributor Southern Seas Ecol Labs
dc.contributor Univ Hong Kong
dc.contributor Roskilde Univ
dc.contributor Uwa Oceans Inst
dc.contributor Australian Institute Of Marine Science
dc.contributor Swire Inst Marine Sci
dc.contributor Univ Rey Juan Carlos
dc.contributor South Australian Res & Dev Inst
dc.contributor University Of Adelaide
dc.contributor University Of Canterbury
dc.contributor Australian Inst Marine Sci
dc.contributor Univ Adelaide
dc.contributor University Of Western Australia
dc.contributor Global Ecol
dc.contributor Aquat Sci
dc.contributor Univ Western Australia
dc.contributor Univ Canterbury
dc.contributor Dept Sci & Environm
dc.contributor Marine Ecol Res Grp
dc.contributor Dept Biol & Geol
dc.contributor Coll Sci & Engn RUSSELL, BAYDEN D. MARTINEZ, BREZO RADFORD, BEN CONNELL, SEAN D. CARRENO, FRANCISCO FORDHAM, DAMIEN A. GURGEL, C. FREDERICO D. WERNBERG, THOMAS THOMSEN, MADS S. BRADSHAW, COREY J. A. 2018-10-14T18:59:41Z 2018-10-14T18:59:41Z 2019-05-09T01:14:20Z 2018-10-14T18:59:41Z 2018-10-14T18:59:41Z 2019-05-09T01:14:20Z 2018-10-01
dc.identifier.citation Martinez B, Radford B, Thomsen MS, Connell SD, Carreno F, Bradshaw CJA, Fordham DA, Russell BD, Gurgel CFD, Wernberg T (2018) Distribution models predict large contractions of habitat-forming seaweeds in response to ocean warming. Diversity and Distributions 24:1350-1366
dc.identifier.issn 1366-9516
dc.description.abstract AimUnderstanding the relative importance of climatic and non-climatic distribution drivers for co-occurring, functionally similar species is required to assess potential consequences of climate change. This understanding is, however, lacking for most ecosystems. We address this knowledge gap and forecast changes in distribution for habitat-forming seaweeds in one of the world's most species-rich temperate reef ecosystems. LocationThe Great Southern Reef. The full extent of Australia's temperate coastline. MethodsWe assessed relationships between climatic and non-climatic environmental data known to influence seaweed, and the presence of 15 habitat-forming seaweeds. Distributional data (herbarium records) were analysed with MAXENT and generalized linear and additive models, to construct species distribution models at 0.2 degrees spatial resolution, and project possible distribution shifts under the RCP 6.0 (medium) and 2.6 (conservative) emissions scenarios of ocean warming for 2100. ResultsSummer temperatures, and to a lesser extent winter temperatures, were the strongest distribution predictors for temperate habitat-forming seaweeds in Australia. Projections for 2100 predicted major poleward shifts for 13 of the 15 species, on average losing 78% (range: 36%-100%) of their current distributions under RCP 6.0 and 62% (range: 27%-100%) under RCP 2.6. The giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) and three prominent fucoids (Durvillaea potatorum, Xiphophora chondrophylla and Phyllospora comosa) were predicted to become extinct from Australia under RCP 6.0. Many species currently distributed up the west and east coasts, including the dominant kelp Ecklonia radiata (71% and 49% estimated loss for RPC 6.0 and 2.6, respectively), were predicted to become restricted to the south coast. Main conclusionsIn close accordance with emerging observations in Australia and globally, our study predicted major range contractions of temperate seaweeds in coming decades. These changes will likely have significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning because large seaweeds are foundation species for 100s of habitat-associated plants and animals, many of which are socio-economically important and endemic to southern Australia.
dc.description.sponsorship This study was funded by the ARC-NZ Vegetation Function Network (working group 58: climate impacts on seaweeds, convened by TW). Additional support was provided by the Australian Research Council (Linkage, TW, CFDG, SDC, BDR, Future Fellowships, TW, SDC, CJAB). BM received travel funding from Rey Juan Carlos University and research supporting by projects CGL2010-19301 funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science. MST was funded by the Marsden Fund of The Royal Society of New Zealand (13-UOC-106). The authors thank the Council of Heads of Australasian Herbaria (CHAH) for access to the AVH database. Data are available through BM and TW. The authors declare no conflict of interests.
dc.language English
dc.subject New-zealand
dc.subject Global Change
dc.subject Species Distribution Models
dc.subject Climate-change
dc.subject Environmental Sciences & Ecology
dc.subject Macroalgae
dc.subject Ecology
dc.subject Biodiversity Conservation
dc.subject Patterns
dc.subject Western-australia
dc.subject Benthic Marine-algae
dc.subject Climate Change
dc.subject Kelp Ecklonia-radiata
dc.subject Surface Temperatures
dc.subject Range Contraction
dc.subject Biodiversity & Conservation
dc.subject Temperate Reefs
dc.subject Species Distribution
dc.subject Range
dc.subject Kelp Forests
dc.title Distribution models predict large contractions of habitat-forming seaweeds in response to ocean warming
dc.type journal article
dc.identifier.doi 10.1111/ddi.12767
dc.identifier.wos WOS:000445727000001

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