Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models

SEQUEIRA, ANA M. M.; BOUCHET, PHIL J.; RANDIN, CHRISTOPHE F.; BAMFORD, ANDREW J.; MARCIA BARBOSA, A.; EMBLING, CLARE B.; GOULD, SUSAN; HALPIN, PATRICK N.; HEINANEN, STEFAN; LAURIA, VALENTINA; MELLIN, CAMILLE; MORMEDE, SOPHIE; OPPEL, STEFFEN; RAPACCIUOLO, GIOVANNI; SCALES, KYLIE L.; SUNDBLAD, GORAN; TORRES, LEIGH G.; WENGER, SETH; ZURELL, DAMARIS; YATES, KATHERINE L.; CALEY, M. JULIAN; MENGERSEN, KERRIE; PARNELL, STEPHEN; FIELDING, ALAN H.; BAN, STEPHEN; DORMANN, CARSTEN F.; ELITH, JANE; ERVIN, GARY N.; FISHER, REBECCA; GRAF, ROLAND F.; GREGR, EDWARD J.; HEIKKINEN, RISTO K.; JONES, ALICE R.; KRISHNAKUMAR, PERIYADAN K.; LOZANO-MONTES, HECTOR; MANNOCCI, LAURA; MESGARAN, MOHSEN B.; MORENO-AMAT, ELENA; NOVACZEK, EMILIE; CRESPO, GUILLERMO ORTUNO; PETERSON, A. TOWNSEND; ROBERTS, JASON J.; ROSS, REBECCA E.; SCHOEMAN, DAVID; SNELGROVE, PAUL; THUILLER, WILFRIED; VERBRUGGEN, HEROEN; WANG, LIFEI; WHITTINGHAM, MARK J.; ZHARIKOV, YURI

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dc.contributor.author	SEQUEIRA, ANA M. M.
dc.contributor.author	BOUCHET, PHIL J.
dc.contributor.author	RANDIN, CHRISTOPHE F.
dc.contributor.author	BAMFORD, ANDREW J.
dc.contributor.author	MARCIA BARBOSA, A.
dc.contributor.author	EMBLING, CLARE B.
dc.contributor.author	GOULD, SUSAN
dc.contributor.author	HALPIN, PATRICK N.
dc.contributor.author	HEINANEN, STEFAN
dc.contributor.author	LAURIA, VALENTINA
dc.contributor.author	MELLIN, CAMILLE
dc.contributor.author	MORMEDE, SOPHIE
dc.contributor.author	OPPEL, STEFFEN
dc.contributor.author	RAPACCIUOLO, GIOVANNI
dc.contributor.author	SCALES, KYLIE L.
dc.contributor.author	SUNDBLAD, GORAN
dc.contributor.author	TORRES, LEIGH G.
dc.contributor.author	WENGER, SETH
dc.contributor.author	ZURELL, DAMARIS
dc.contributor.author	YATES, KATHERINE L.
dc.contributor.author	CALEY, M. JULIAN
dc.contributor.author	MENGERSEN, KERRIE
dc.contributor.author	PARNELL, STEPHEN
dc.contributor.author	FIELDING, ALAN H.
dc.contributor.author	BAN, STEPHEN
dc.contributor.author	DORMANN, CARSTEN F.
dc.contributor.author	ELITH, JANE
dc.contributor.author	ERVIN, GARY N.
dc.contributor.author	FISHER, REBECCA
dc.contributor.author	GRAF, ROLAND F.
dc.contributor.author	GREGR, EDWARD J.
dc.contributor.author	HEIKKINEN, RISTO K.
dc.contributor.author	JONES, ALICE R.
dc.contributor.author	KRISHNAKUMAR, PERIYADAN K.
dc.contributor.author	LOZANO-MONTES, HECTOR
dc.contributor.author	MANNOCCI, LAURA
dc.contributor.author	MESGARAN, MOHSEN B.
dc.contributor.author	MORENO-AMAT, ELENA
dc.contributor.author	NOVACZEK, EMILIE
dc.contributor.author	CRESPO, GUILLERMO ORTUNO
dc.contributor.author	PETERSON, A. TOWNSEND
dc.contributor.author	ROBERTS, JASON J.
dc.contributor.author	ROSS, REBECCA E.
dc.contributor.author	SCHOEMAN, DAVID
dc.contributor.author	SNELGROVE, PAUL
dc.contributor.author	THUILLER, WILFRIED
dc.contributor.author	VERBRUGGEN, HEROEN
dc.contributor.author	WANG, LIFEI
dc.contributor.author	WHITTINGHAM, MARK J.
dc.contributor.author	ZHARIKOV, YURI
dc.date.accessioned	2018-11-04T18:59:44Z
dc.date.accessioned	2018-11-04T18:59:44Z
dc.date.accessioned	2019-07-08T02:07:31Z
dc.date.available	2018-11-04T18:59:44Z
dc.date.available	2018-11-04T18:59:44Z
dc.date.available	2019-07-08T02:07:31Z
dc.date.issued	2018-10-01
dc.identifier.citation	Yates KL, Bouchet PJ, Caley MJ, Mengersen K, Randin CF, Parnell S, Fielding AH, Bamford AJ, Ban S, Barbosa A, Dormann CF, Elith J, Embling CB, Ervin GN, Fisher R, Gould S, Graf RF, Gregr EJ, Halpin PN, Heikkinen RK, Heinanen S, Jones AR, Krishnakumar PK, Lauria V, Lozano-Montes H, Mannocci L, Mellin C, Mesgaran MB, Moreno-Amat E, Mormede S, Novaczek E, Oppel S, Crespo GO, Peterson AT, Rapacciuolo G, Roberts JJ, Ross RE, Scales KL, Schoeman D, Snelgrove P, Sundblad G, Thuiller W, Torres LG, Verbruggen H, Wang L, Wenger S, Whittingham MJ, Zharikov Y, Zurell D, Sequeira AMM (2018) Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 33(10): 790-802
dc.identifier.issn	0169-5347
dc.identifier.uri	http://epubs.aims.gov.au/11068/14874
dc.description.abstract	Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.
dc.description.sponsorship	A.M.M.S. was supported by the Australian Research Council (grant: DE170100841) and an IOMRC (UWA/AIMS/CSIRO) collaborative Postdoctoral Fellowship. P.J.B. received support from the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Programme (NESP). C.M. was supported by the Australian Research Council (grant: DE140100701). D.Z. was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant: PZ00P3_168136/1) and the German Science Foundation (grant: ZU 361/1-1). J.E. was supported by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CE11001000104). S.P. was supported by the USDA (grant: 17-8130-0570-CA) and DEFRA. P.N.H., J.J.R., and L.M. were supported by a US Navy Cooperative Agreement (N62470-15-2-8003). A.R.J. was supported by The Spencer Gulf Ecosystem Development Initiative and the Goyder Institute for Water Research (project number: CA-16-04). A.M.B. was supported by FCT and FEDER/COMPETE 2020 (project: IF/00266/2013/CP1168/CT0001). C.F.D. was supported by the German Science Foundation (grant: DO 786/10-1). We thank all additional participants in the August 2016 IMCC4 symposium on 'Increasing the utility of predictive models: Understanding model transferability', including: Bapu Vaitla, Chris Golden, Mohd Qurban, Kerry Howell, Sara Maxwell, Telmo Morato, Robin Anderson, Pierre Pepin, Stephanie Sardelise. Our thanks also go to Niklaus Zimmermann for contributing initial questions and providing thoughtful input in the early stages of manuscript preparation. We also gratefully acknowledge the constructive comments provided by three anonymous reviewers on a previous version of this manuscript.
dc.language	English
dc.subject	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
dc.subject	Habitat Selection
dc.subject	Ecology
dc.subject	Temporal Transferability
dc.subject	Abundance
dc.subject	Distributions
dc.subject	Decision-making
dc.subject	Genetics & Heredity
dc.subject	Biotic Interactions
dc.subject	Evolutionary Biology
dc.subject	Predictive Models
dc.subject	Niche
dc.subject	Species Distribution Models
dc.subject	Climate-change
dc.title	Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models
dc.type	journal article
dc.identifier.doi	10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001
dc.identifier.wos	WOS:000447963700008