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Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models

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dc.contributor.author SEQUEIRA, ANA M. M.
dc.contributor.author BOUCHET, PHIL J.
dc.contributor.author RANDIN, CHRISTOPHE F.
dc.contributor.author BAMFORD, ANDREW J.
dc.contributor.author MARCIA BARBOSA, A.
dc.contributor.author EMBLING, CLARE B.
dc.contributor.author GOULD, SUSAN
dc.contributor.author HALPIN, PATRICK N.
dc.contributor.author HEINANEN, STEFAN
dc.contributor.author LAURIA, VALENTINA
dc.contributor.author MELLIN, CAMILLE
dc.contributor.author MORMEDE, SOPHIE
dc.contributor.author OPPEL, STEFFEN
dc.contributor.author RAPACCIUOLO, GIOVANNI
dc.contributor.author SCALES, KYLIE L.
dc.contributor.author SUNDBLAD, GORAN
dc.contributor.author TORRES, LEIGH G.
dc.contributor.author WENGER, SETH
dc.contributor.author ZURELL, DAMARIS
dc.contributor.author YATES, KATHERINE L.
dc.contributor.author CALEY, M. JULIAN
dc.contributor.author MENGERSEN, KERRIE
dc.contributor.author PARNELL, STEPHEN
dc.contributor.author FIELDING, ALAN H.
dc.contributor.author BAN, STEPHEN
dc.contributor.author DORMANN, CARSTEN F.
dc.contributor.author ELITH, JANE
dc.contributor.author ERVIN, GARY N.
dc.contributor.author FISHER, REBECCA
dc.contributor.author GRAF, ROLAND F.
dc.contributor.author GREGR, EDWARD J.
dc.contributor.author HEIKKINEN, RISTO K.
dc.contributor.author JONES, ALICE R.
dc.contributor.author KRISHNAKUMAR, PERIYADAN K.
dc.contributor.author LOZANO-MONTES, HECTOR
dc.contributor.author MANNOCCI, LAURA
dc.contributor.author MESGARAN, MOHSEN B.
dc.contributor.author MORENO-AMAT, ELENA
dc.contributor.author NOVACZEK, EMILIE
dc.contributor.author CRESPO, GUILLERMO ORTUNO
dc.contributor.author PETERSON, A. TOWNSEND
dc.contributor.author ROBERTS, JASON J.
dc.contributor.author ROSS, REBECCA E.
dc.contributor.author SCHOEMAN, DAVID
dc.contributor.author SNELGROVE, PAUL
dc.contributor.author THUILLER, WILFRIED
dc.contributor.author VERBRUGGEN, HEROEN
dc.contributor.author WANG, LIFEI
dc.contributor.author WHITTINGHAM, MARK J.
dc.contributor.author ZHARIKOV, YURI
dc.date.accessioned 2018-11-04T18:59:44Z
dc.date.accessioned 2018-11-04T18:59:44Z
dc.date.accessioned 2019-07-08T02:07:31Z
dc.date.available 2018-11-04T18:59:44Z
dc.date.available 2018-11-04T18:59:44Z
dc.date.available 2019-07-08T02:07:31Z
dc.date.issued 2018-10-01
dc.identifier.citation Yates KL, Bouchet PJ, Caley MJ, Mengersen K, Randin CF, Parnell S, Fielding AH, Bamford AJ, Ban S, Barbosa A, Dormann CF, Elith J, Embling CB, Ervin GN, Fisher R, Gould S, Graf RF, Gregr EJ, Halpin PN, Heikkinen RK, Heinanen S, Jones AR, Krishnakumar PK, Lauria V, Lozano-Montes H, Mannocci L, Mellin C, Mesgaran MB, Moreno-Amat E, Mormede S, Novaczek E, Oppel S, Crespo GO, Peterson AT, Rapacciuolo G, Roberts JJ, Ross RE, Scales KL, Schoeman D, Snelgrove P, Sundblad G, Thuiller W, Torres LG, Verbruggen H, Wang L, Wenger S, Whittingham MJ, Zharikov Y, Zurell D, Sequeira AMM (2018) Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 33(10): 790-802
dc.identifier.issn 0169-5347
dc.identifier.uri http://epubs.aims.gov.au/11068/14874
dc.description.abstract Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.
dc.description.sponsorship A.M.M.S. was supported by the Australian Research Council (grant: DE170100841) and an IOMRC (UWA/AIMS/CSIRO) collaborative Postdoctoral Fellowship. P.J.B. received support from the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Programme (NESP). C.M. was supported by the Australian Research Council (grant: DE140100701). D.Z. was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant: PZ00P3_168136/1) and the German Science Foundation (grant: ZU 361/1-1). J.E. was supported by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CE11001000104). S.P. was supported by the USDA (grant: 17-8130-0570-CA) and DEFRA. P.N.H., J.J.R., and L.M. were supported by a US Navy Cooperative Agreement (N62470-15-2-8003). A.R.J. was supported by The Spencer Gulf Ecosystem Development Initiative and the Goyder Institute for Water Research (project number: CA-16-04). A.M.B. was supported by FCT and FEDER/COMPETE 2020 (project: IF/00266/2013/CP1168/CT0001). C.F.D. was supported by the German Science Foundation (grant: DO 786/10-1). We thank all additional participants in the August 2016 IMCC4 symposium on 'Increasing the utility of predictive models: Understanding model transferability', including: Bapu Vaitla, Chris Golden, Mohd Qurban, Kerry Howell, Sara Maxwell, Telmo Morato, Robin Anderson, Pierre Pepin, Stephanie Sardelise. Our thanks also go to Niklaus Zimmermann for contributing initial questions and providing thoughtful input in the early stages of manuscript preparation. We also gratefully acknowledge the constructive comments provided by three anonymous reviewers on a previous version of this manuscript.
dc.language English
dc.subject Environmental Sciences & Ecology
dc.subject Habitat Selection
dc.subject Ecology
dc.subject Temporal Transferability
dc.subject Abundance
dc.subject Distributions
dc.subject Decision-making
dc.subject Genetics & Heredity
dc.subject Biotic Interactions
dc.subject Evolutionary Biology
dc.subject Predictive Models
dc.subject Niche
dc.subject Species Distribution Models
dc.subject Climate-change
dc.title Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models
dc.type journal article
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001
dc.identifier.wos WOS:000447963700008


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