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Hendra virus spillover is a bimodal system driven by climatic factors

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dc.contributor Bozeman Dis Ecol Lab
dc.contributor Montana State University System
dc.contributor Griffith Univ
dc.contributor Australian Inst Marine Sci
dc.contributor Griffith University
dc.contributor Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico
dc.contributor Montana State University
dc.contributor Australian Institute Of Marine Science
dc.contributor Montana State University Bozeman
dc.contributor Lab Conservac Biodiversidad
dc.contributor Hlth Res Grp 1
dc.contributor Coll Publ Hlth Med & Vet Sci
dc.contributor Montana State Univ
dc.contributor Parque Cient & Tecnol Yucatan
dc.contributor Griffith Sch Environm
dc.contributor Universidad Nacional Autonoma De Mexico
dc.contributor James Cook Univ
dc.contributor James Cook University
dc.contributor Dept Microbiol & Immunol SKERRATT, LEE F. MARTIN, GERARDO YANEZ-ARENAS, CARLOS PLOWRIGHT, RAINA K. CHEN, CARLA ROBERTS, BILLIE 2018-11-25T18:52:08Z 2018-11-25T18:52:08Z 2019-07-08T02:36:38Z 2018-11-25T18:52:08Z 2018-11-25T18:52:08Z 2019-07-08T02:36:38Z 2018-09-01
dc.identifier.citation Martin G, Yanez-Arenas C, Plowright RK, Chen C, Roberts B, Skerratt LF (2018) Hendra virus spillover is a bimodal system driven by climatic factors. EcoHealth15: 526-542
dc.identifier.issn 1612-9202
dc.description.abstract Understanding environmental factors driving spatiotemporal patterns of disease can improve risk mitigation strategies. Hendra virus (HeV), discovered in Australia in 1994, spills over from bats (Pteropus sp.) to horses and thence to humans. Below latitude -22 degrees, almost all spillover events to horses occur during winter, and above this latitude spillover is aseasonal. We generated a statistical model of environmental drivers of HeV spillover per month. The model reproduced the spatiotemporal pattern of spillover risk between 1994 and 2015. The model was generated with an ensemble of methods for presence-absence data (boosted regression trees, random forests and logistic regression). Presences were the locations of horse cases, and absences per spatial unit (2.7x2.7km pixels without spillover) were sampled with the horse census of Queensland and New South Wales. The most influential factors indicate that spillover is associated with both cold-dry and wet conditions. Bimodal responses to several variables suggest spillover involves two systems: one above and one below a latitudinal area close to -22 degrees. Northern spillovers are associated with cold-dry and wet conditions, and southern with cold-dry conditions. Biologically, these patterns could be driven by immune or behavioural changes in response to food shortage in bats and horse husbandry. Future research should look for differences in these traits between seasons in the two latitudinal regions. Based on the predicted risk patterns by latitude, we recommend enhanced preventive management for horses from March to November below latitude 22 degrees south.
dc.description.sponsorship The College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, was contracted by the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation to undertake this research project. This research was funded by the Commonwealth of Australia, the State of New South Wales and the State of Queensland under the National Hendra Virus Research Program. HeV incident locations are by courtesy of the State of Queensland, through the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Biosecurity Queensland, thanks to Dr. Craig Smith. We would also like to thank Dr David Paez and the reviewers for their valuable comments on the manuscript.
dc.language English
dc.subject Spatiotemporal Risk
dc.subject Risk-factors
dc.subject Ecology
dc.subject Flying-foxes
dc.subject Biodiversity Conservation
dc.subject Environmental Sciences & Ecology
dc.subject Spillover
dc.subject Transmission
dc.subject Species Distribution Models
dc.subject Emerging Diseases
dc.subject Environmental Sciences
dc.subject Poliocephalus Chiroptera
dc.subject Fruit Bats
dc.subject Flying Foxes
dc.subject Horses
dc.subject Biodiversity & Conservation
dc.subject Hendra Virus
dc.subject Pteropus-poliocephalus
dc.subject Null-model
dc.subject Infectious-diseases
dc.title Hendra virus spillover is a bimodal system driven by climatic factors
dc.type journal article
dc.identifier.doi 10.1007/s10393-017-1309-y
dc.identifier.wos WOS:000448039100006

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