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Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk

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dc.contributor Dept Microbiol & Immunol
dc.contributor Imperial College London
dc.contributor Montana State University Bozeman
dc.contributor Hlth Res Grp 1
dc.contributor Coll Publ Hlth Med & Vet Sci
dc.contributor Montana State Univ
dc.contributor Parque Cient & Tecnol Yucatan
dc.contributor James Cook Univ
dc.contributor James Cook University
dc.contributor Bozeman Dis Ecol Lab
dc.contributor Montana State University System
dc.contributor Australian Inst Marine Sci
dc.contributor Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico
dc.contributor Australian Institute Of Marine Science
dc.contributor Ecol Hlth Res Grp
dc.contributor Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol
dc.contributor Montana State University
dc.contributor Lab Conservac Biodiversidad
dc.contributor Imperial Coll London
dc.contributor Universidad Nacional Autonoma De Mexico WEBB, REBECCA J. MARTIN, GERARDO CHEN, CARLA PLOWRIGHT, RAINA K. SKERRATT, LEE F. YANEZ-ARENAS, CARLOS 2018-11-25T18:54:35Z 2018-11-25T18:54:35Z 2019-05-09T01:18:17Z 2018-11-25T18:54:35Z 2018-11-25T18:54:35Z 2019-05-09T01:18:17Z 2018-09-01
dc.identifier.citation Martin G, Yanez-Arenas C, Chen C, Plowright RK, Webb RJ, Skerratt LF (2018) Climate change could increase the geographic extent of Hendra virus spillover risk. EcoHealth 15: 509-525
dc.identifier.issn 1612-9202
dc.description.abstract Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175-260% (110,000-165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.
dc.description.sponsorship The College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University was contracted by the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation to undertake this research project (Grant No. PRJ-008213). This research was funded by the Commonwealth of Australia, the State of New South Wales and the State of Queensland under the National Hendra Virus Research Program. HeV incident locations are by courtesy of the State of Queensland, through the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Biosecurity Queensland, thank to Dr. Craig Smith.
dc.language English
dc.subject Environmental Sciences & Ecology
dc.subject Ecology
dc.subject Flying-foxes
dc.subject Ecological Niche Models
dc.subject Environmental Sciences
dc.subject Risk
dc.subject Climate Change
dc.subject Foxes Pteropus Spp.
dc.subject Flying Foxes
dc.subject Horses
dc.subject Biodiversity & Conservation
dc.subject Bats
dc.subject Hendra Virus
dc.subject Point Process Models
dc.subject Infectious-diseases
dc.subject Sars
dc.subject Emergence
dc.subject Spillover
dc.subject Transmission
dc.subject Australia
dc.subject Biodiversity Conservation
dc.title Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk
dc.type journal article
dc.identifier.doi 10.1007/s10393-018-1322-9
dc.identifier.wos WOS:000448039100005

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