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Projected Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century and the Potential for Ecological Impact

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dc.contributor University Of Western Australia
dc.contributor Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Climate Ext
dc.contributor Dalhousie Univ
dc.contributor Aberystwyth University
dc.contributor Uwa Oceans Inst
dc.contributor Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies
dc.contributor Uhi Millennium Institute
dc.contributor Sch Biol Sci
dc.contributor University Of New South Wales Sydney
dc.contributor Aberystwyth Univ
dc.contributor Csiro Oceans & Atmosphere
dc.contributor Marine Biol Assoc Uk
dc.contributor Univ Tasmania
dc.contributor Scottish Assoc Marine Sci
dc.contributor Climate Change Res Ctr
dc.contributor Marine Ecol Res Grp
dc.contributor Australian Institute Of Marine Science
dc.contributor Ctr Integrat Ecol
dc.contributor Australian Inst Marine Sci
dc.contributor University Of Tasmania
dc.contributor Inst Biol Environm & Rural Studies
dc.contributor Univ New South Wales
dc.contributor University Of Canterbury
dc.contributor Barcelona Supercomp Ctr
dc.contributor Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (csiro)
dc.contributor Dalhousie University
dc.contributor Dept Oceanog
dc.contributor Barcelona Supercomputer Center (bsc-cns)
dc.contributor Marine Biological Association United Kingdom
dc.contributor Univ Canterbury
dc.contributor Univ Western Australia
dc.contributor.author SMALE, DAN A.
dc.contributor.author OLIVER, ERIC C. J.
dc.contributor.author DONAT, MARKUS G.
dc.contributor.author SEN GUPTA, ALEX
dc.contributor.author PERKINS-KIRKPATRICK, SARAH E.
dc.contributor.author BENTHUYSEN, JESSICA A.
dc.contributor.author HOLBROOK, NEIL J.
dc.contributor.author THOMSEN, MADS S.
dc.contributor.author WERNBERG, THOMAS
dc.contributor.author BURROWS, MICHAEL T.
dc.contributor.author ALEXANDER, LISA, V
dc.contributor.author HOBDAY, ALISTAIR J.
dc.contributor.author MOORE, PIPPA J.
dc.date.accessioned 2019-12-31T23:39:02Z
dc.date.accessioned 2019-12-31T23:39:02Z
dc.date.accessioned 2020-01-16T06:14:08Z
dc.date.available 2019-12-31T23:39:02Z
dc.date.available 2019-12-31T23:39:02Z
dc.date.available 2020-01-16T06:14:08Z
dc.date.issued 2019-12-04
dc.identifier.citation Oliver ECJ, Burrows MT, Donat MG, Sen Gupta A, Alexander LV, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Benthuysen JA, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Moore PJ, Thomsen MS, Wernberg T, Smale DA (2019) Projected marine heatwaves in the 21st Century and the potential for ecological impact. Frontiers in Marine Science 6: 734
dc.identifier.uri http://epubs.aims.gov.au/11068/15637
dc.description.abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme climatic events in oceanic systems that can have devastating impacts on ecosystems, causing abrupt ecological changes and socioeconomic consequences. Several prominent MHWs have attracted scientific and public interest, and recent assessments have documented global and regional increases in their frequency. However, for proactive marine management, it is critical to understand how patterns might change in the future. Here, we estimate future changes in MHWs to the end of the 21st century, as simulated by the CMIP5 global climate model projections. Significant increases in MHW intensity and count of annual MHW days are projected to accelerate, with many parts of the ocean reaching a near-permanent MHW state by the late 21st century. The two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5) strongly affect the projected intensity of MHW events, the proportion of the globe exposed to permanent MHW states, and the occurrence of the most extreme MHW events. Comparison with simulations of a natural world, without anthropogenic forcing, indicate that these trends have emerged from the expected range of natural variability within the first half of the 21st century. This discrepancy implies a degree of "anthropogenic emergence," with a departure from the natural MHW conditions that have previously shaped marine ecosystems for centuries or even millennia. Based on these projections we expect impacts on marine ecosystems to be widespread, significant and persistent through the 21st century.
dc.description.sponsorship This research was supported by the Australian Research Council grants CE170100023 and FT170100106, Natural Environment Research Council International Opportunity Fund NE/N00678X/1, National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2018-05255, and Brian Mason (Impacts of an unprecedented marine heatwave). This project was partially supported through funding from the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program.
dc.language English
dc.subject Extreme Events
dc.subject Sea-surface-temperature
dc.subject Heat-wave
dc.subject Climate Change
dc.subject Global Climate Models
dc.subject Marine & Freshwater Biology
dc.subject Record
dc.subject Variability
dc.subject Environmental Sciences
dc.subject Environmental Sciences & Ecology
dc.subject Climate-change
dc.subject Australia
dc.subject Satellite
dc.subject Ocean
dc.subject In-situ
dc.subject Great-barrier-reef
dc.subject Ecosystems
dc.subject Marine Heatwave
dc.title Projected Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century and the Potential for Ecological Impact
dc.type journal article
dc.identifier.doi 10.3389/fmars.2019.00734
dc.identifier.wos WOS:000502961300001


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